Commodity Event Study

Identifies historically extended commodity moves, waits for exhaustion or reversal confirmation, and measures how often those signals marked durable tops.

1. Choose the commodity, signal profile, and history used to define an extreme.
2. Confirm whether price extension has been followed by actual reversal evidence.
3. Read forward returns, drawdowns, hit rates, and sample size across horizons.

This is a top study: negative post-signal returns favor the signal. Continuous-futures roll construction can affect history.

Primary inputs: Yahoo Finance daily continuous-futures history; CFTC Disaggregated Managed Money positioning where mapped.